Who's Counting?

The 2010 Census results are in the final stages of tabulation and validation. Even so, I suspect that the numbers we are given will be, at best, approximations and, at worst, fabrications. Taking the census is a constitutionally mandated function that is found in Article 1, Section 2 of our pre-eminent governing document. The primary (and only constitutional) purpose of the “actual Enumeration” is to determine representation for the United States House of Representatives. The congressional districts are to be designed so that each member of the House represents a similar number of citizens. There are other uses for the census data that are outside the constitutional requirement, and the data that are collected have gone far beyond mere enumeration. Some would argue that the information sought by census takers transforms the census from a representation determinant to an intrusive social engineering mechanism. Indeed it does as many of the data are used to identify community clusters of poverty, households that lack amenities that may be more prevalent in other economic strata (e.g. 1 bathroom versus 2 bathrooms), or households that suffer because the available square footage per resident is lower than the typical figure.


The Constitution requires that we execute an “actual Enumeration.” In other words…count the people. The Constitution does NOT demand that all manner of intrusive busybody questions be asked. The Constitution does NOT call for or anticipate that computer modeling be used to “fill the gaps of knowledge.” The Constitution does NOT require that millions of people be hired for temporary positions. The Constitution does not demand that those millions of temporary workers ferret out minute details of people’s lives. If the long form census document were abandoned, then enumerators could COUNT, models would be unnecessary and the temporary boost in employment figures wouldn’t be so dramatic. Just like everything else the federal government undertakes, the census has become too cumbersome, too unwieldy and has distorted its original purpose.

Now that my rant about the census has ended, let’s look at the impact for Ohio’s congressional delegation. Currently, we have 18 M.O.C. (members of Congress), but early indications are that we will slip to 16 for the next decade. Because the House of Representatives is limited to 435 members from the 50 states (57 in Obama math), the total population is divided by 435 then apportioned accordingly. The growth in the Southwest, particularly Texas, has minimized the impact of Ohio’s relatively stable population of roughly 11 million people. So, the influence of the Buckeye State on the national scene will be diluted once again, and our impact on the Electoral College will slip from 20 to 18 electoral votes. The Presidential votes in a winner-take-all system in Ohio mean that we represent just fewer than seven per cent of the Electoral College. The reasons for our stagnate growth and our diminishing electoral influence are many, and I will explore them at a later time. I wish to briefly examine how the Census results will impact Ohio.

The Congressional districts are determined by the Ohio General Assembly. Following the November 2010 midterm elections, the GOP will assume control of both chambers with overwhelming numerical advantages. In the House the Republicans hold 59 seats and the Democrats have 40. The Senate favors the GOP by a 23 to 10 margin. Historically, the redistricting process has involved the two parties working together to equally distribute the pain of lost congressional seats. If that model were to be implemented this time, I would expect Dennis Kucinich and Jean Schmidt will see their districts carved and dismantled. It would not surprise me, however, for the GOP to exercise its new power and place four Democratic incumbents in primary races for two districts. To quote the inept Colonel Klink, “verrry interesting.” However the redistricting process unfolds (I understand that it has been drawn already), the GOP General Assembly will face some justified criticism. Work with the “D’s” and it’s the same old business as usual…the two parties working to undermine the will of the electorate. Exercise the raw power of the numbers, and the GOP becomes the party of bullies who run roughshod over the minority. Whatever route the majority chooses to follow, they have ten years to recover.

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